Timeline
- 7.5
Bitcoin Surges Past $80K as Dovish Fed Dot Plot Fuels $445M Short Squeeze
Bitcoin jumped 5.88% in 24 hours to $80,846, opening at $76,355 and hitting an intraday high of $80,857, after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points while its dot plot projected a median policy rate of just 4.1% through the end of 2027. The move liquidated more than $445 million in crypto short positions, over $230 million of which were Bitcoin shorts. The episode shows how directly crypto derivatives now price in Federal Reserve policy signals: a single dovish projection triggered a cascading short squeeze that erased the panic selling that followed the Clarity Act's failed Senate vote days earlier. It highlights that leveraged positioning, not spot demand alone, is driving large single-day moves in Bitcoin, which remains nearly 20% below its previous all-time high. Technical readings back the move but warn it is stretched: the ADX sits at 40.6, well above the 25 trend-confirmation threshold, with DI+ above DI-, and the 50-day EMA has crossed above the 200-day EMA, forming a golden cross that began last Saturday. RSI is at 63.3 — bullish but climbing toward the 70 overbought zone — while the Squeeze Momentum Indicator has stayed on for 11 consecutive bars, with an 8.06% contraction reading suggesting volatility may still be compressed and a larger release could lie ahead.
- 8.0
Fed Hikes Rates 25bps to 3.75%-4.00%, First Increase Since July 2023
The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously (12-0) to raise the fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, the first rate hike since July 2023, with the quarterly dot plot now showing a median projection of 4.1% at the end of 2026 versus 3.8% in June. Chair Kevin Warsh said at his post-meeting press conference that the economy "has indeed strengthened" but that "inflation is the problem." This ends a more than three-year easing/on-hold cycle and signals that the Warsh-led Fed is willing to tighten even amid political pressure from President Donald Trump for lower rates, resetting expectations for the entire 2026 policy path. Higher policy rates raise the cost of borrowing, lift yields on risk-free Treasuries, and typically drain liquidity from speculative assets, so the move re-prices the macro backdrop that crypto and equity markets trade against. The decision was widely anticipated and largely priced in, which explains why bitcoin spiked to roughly $76,500 five minutes after the release and then gave the gains back within half an hour, stabilizing near $75,500-$75,700; the median dot now implies one more hike in 2026, and Warsh declined to comment on Trump's reaction. The FOMC statement cited solid economic activity, resilient domestic spending, elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, and reiterated that the committee "will deliver price stability."
- 7.0
Bitcoin Slides Below $80K as Blowout Jobs Report Boosts Fed Hike Odds
The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, nearly triple the 53,000 economists expected, pushing the implied probability of a September Fed rate hike to 58% from 49.4%. Bitcoin slipped below $80,000 after touching a four-month high of $82,240 earlier on Friday. The strong jobs report revived expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting, tightening financial conditions just as risk assets had been rallying on hopes of a pause. This macro shift directly pressured Bitcoin, gold, and stocks, illustrating how U.S. labor data can ripple through crypto markets. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, while June and July payrolls were revised higher and the two-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since January 2025. Bitcoin traded near $79,300 within minutes of the release, even as spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $730.8 million in net inflows and CoinMarketCap's Fear and Greed Index remained at 75 ("greed").