Current outcome
The Fed raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept 16, 2026, its first hike since July 2023, in a 12-0 vote; the median projection now puts the 2026 year-end rate at 4.1%, up from 3.8% in June; Bitcoin spiked to $76,499.99 after the release and gave back the move within half an hour, later stabilizing near $75,500, while Zcash rallied to $1,383; Chair Warsh called inflation 'the problem' and outlined the Fed's AI-policy independence stance.
Progress timeline
6 material updates- #01
Federal Reserve Rate Hike Close To A Lock ; Clarity Act Vote Looms : Week Ahead
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates while a key Clarity Act vote approaches, setting up a consequential week for macro and crypto markets.
Source evidence: investors.com
- #02
Wall Street Bets on Fed Rate Hike: Here's What It Means for Bitcoin, Bonds and Trump
CME FedWatch shows 94.5% odds of a 25-basis-point hike Wednesday; Wall Street banks forecast 50-75 bps total tightening in 2026; Trump publicly pressures Fed Chair Warsh against hiking; 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.04%, highest since July 2007.
State after update: The Fed is now priced at 94.5% probability for a 25-basis-point hike on Wednesday, with political tension between Trump and Fed Chair Warsh intensifying.
Source evidence: Decrypt
- #03
Fed raises rates by 25 basis points in first hike since July 2023
The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept 16, its first hike since July 2023, with a unanimous vote and a dot plot signaling one more hike in 2026.
State after update: The Fed has raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike since July 2023, with the dot plot signaling one more hike in 2026.
Source evidence: CoinDesk
- #04
Fed Hikes Rates for the First Time Since 2023, Bitcoin Spikes
After the Fed's Sept 16 hike, Bitcoin briefly spiked to $76,000 while the broader crypto market fell about 2.18% on the day; the report also notes the FOMC vote was unanimous at 12-0, markets had priced in about a 93% chance of the hike, and it adds PPI/CPI inflation details.
State after update: The Fed raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept 16, 2026, its first hike since July 2023; the decision was unanimous, the dot plot signals one more hike in 2026, and markets reacted with a brief Bitcoin spike while the broader crypto market fell.
Source evidence: Decrypt
- #05
Fed Chair Implies Trump Is Only Half Right on the Economy Following Rate Hike
Fed Chair Warsh at the post-meeting press conference on Sept 16 said the economy has strengthened but called inflation 'the problem,' declined to comment on Trump's reaction, and outlined the Fed's stance on AI policy independence and five task forces; Bitcoin briefly spiked then stabilized near $75,500, down about 0.5% on the day.
State after update: The Fed raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept 16, 2026, its first hike since July 2023, unanimous; Chair Warsh called inflation 'the problem' at the press conference, declined to comment on Trump, and said the Fed will focus on AI's economic implications rather than set AI policy; the dot plot signals one more hike in 2026; Bitcoin briefly spiked then stabilized near $75,500, down slightly on the day.
Source evidence: Decrypt
- #06
Bitcoin Round-Trips the First Fed Rate Increase Since 2023 as Zcash Runs to $1,383
New report adds: FOMC voted 12-0 to raise rates 25 bps to 3.75%-4% and lifted the 2026 year-end median rate projection to 4.1% from 3.8% in June; Bitcoin spiked to $76,499.99 five minutes after the release and gave back the move within half an hour; Zcash rallied to $1,383.
State after update: The Fed raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept 16, 2026, its first hike since July 2023, in a 12-0 vote; the median projection now puts the 2026 year-end rate at 4.1%, up from 3.8% in June; Bitcoin spiked to $76,499.99 after the release and gave back the move within half an hour, later stabilizing near $75,500, while Zcash rallied to $1,383; Chair Warsh called inflation 'the problem' and outlined the Fed's AI-policy independence stance.
Source evidence: The Defiant